OVERRATED/UNDERRATED FANTASY

UPSYDE SPORTS PRESENTS:

Fantasy Analysis - Biggest Reaches / Sleepers in Draft:

With most fantasy drafts behind, dozens of mock drafts completed, and depth charts pretty much locked in, these are the biggest reaches and sleepers in the draft.

REACHES:

NIKOLA VUCEVIC - ADP: 15.9 - I'm a huge fan of the Vuce, but not mid-2nd round. After his trade his scoring production dropped from 24.5 PPG to 21.5 PPG, played 2 less MPG, and shot less 3's. He is still an elite big, even in his age-30 season, but now his usage will take another hit with DeMar DeRozan entering the mix. It's possible his efficiency might go up with Lonzo Ball added to the mix, but overall, I like him mid-3rd round at the earliest value-wise.

DE'AARON FOX - ADP: 19.7 - Another player I'm not a huge fan of being drafted in the 2nd round. I think with Haliburton's increased usage and the addition of Davion Mitchell could hurt his production. There is also the possibility that Fox gets traded - he defense is a detriment in real game production and while he holds strong value now, that could change if he gets added to a contender.

CHRIS PAUL - ADP: 34.9 - At some point, he has to decline. He is now entering his age-36 season, well past the lifespan of a point guard. Devin Booker has taken on a larger role, they brought in guys like Landry Shamet and Elfrid Payton to help with depth, and Ayton will need to take on a larger scoring role for the Suns to be effective. He'll still have solid steals and assist numbers, but if he starts getting less than 30 MPG, he could be in trouble from a fantasy perspective.

CHRISTIAN WOOD - ADP: 39.3 - In a vacuum, I really like Wood as a player. I hate his situation. With the high usage back court, the additions of Theis and Sengun, and the tanking nature of the Rockets, he could very well be traded to a contender and put up pedestrian numbers. He had a hot start early on last year and then put up okay numbers to finish off the season as the Rockets tried to tank for Cade. If he can play like he did the first two month of the season last year, this was a steal, if he gets traded, sell high.

JUSUF NURKIC - ADP: 57.1 - Not a huge fan of his game. Between the injury risk, his low production, and his lack of volume 3-point shooting, his game is somewhat tired. He's a good passer for a center, but not elite. He turns the ball over a lot for a guy that is not highly efficient with his playmaking, he's not an elite defender both in fantasy and outside, is oft into foul trouble, is a subpar free throw shooter, and he's not even reliable for field goal percentage. He will end up putting similar production to a guy like Steven Adams or Ivica Zubac, but way earlier in the draft.

SLEEPERS:

MALIK BEASLEY - ADP: 126.6 - He averaged almost 20 PPG last year, 3.5 3PG, rebounds well for a SG-eligible player, had 44/85 percentage splits, and only 1.6 TOPG. He has top-75 value with top-50 upside from a player drafted damn near the end of the draft. There is a case to be made of regression with D-Lo healthy, Edwards possibly taking an expanded role, and the late emergence of Nowell last year. On the flip side, they traded away Culver to make room for him and replaced him with Pat Beverley, who definitely does not play the same position. Even as a 6th man, he could flirt with top-75 value most of the year.

TYLER HERRO - ADP: 116.0 - Coming off of a disappointing season, the addition of Kyle Lowry might actually help him, rather than hurt him. Without a reliable playmaker, Butler was forced to enter that point guard role quite often and it came at the expense of Herro's game. The confident young guard classifies himself in the same conversation as Luka, Ja, LaMelo, and others, so taking a late round gamble on a guy that was a bubble anomaly might end up reaping major dividends.

KEVIN PORTER JR - ADP: 110.3 - As a starter, KPJ averaged 17.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 6.5 APG last season with the Rockets. Now they add an elite scorer in Jalen Green and the Rockets have committed to the future by benching Wall until they find him a new home. These projections have him valued as high as Haliburton (ADP: 70.0) and Lowry (ADP: 65.1). His floor seems very high and he qualifies for both guard positions.

BOGDAN BOGDANAVIC - ADP: 99.0 - His averages last year were poor because he was injured a good portion of the season. From April 1, through the rest of the season, he averaged 22.0 PPG, 4.6 3PG, 4.1 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.5 SPG, and only 1.5 TOPG. In a 9-category league, he was probably a top-40 player during this time, replicating a stat line similar to Khris Middleton (ADP: 36.8). With the Hawks fully healthy, it's unlikely he will be able to maintain this level of production, but if he lands halfway in between his stats cumulative stats from last year and his strong end-of-season campaign, owners will be pleased.

ISAIAH STEWART - ADP: 90.0 - Last season, in 12 games a starter, he averaged 12.7 PPG, 9.4 RPG, and 2.1 BPG. In games where he played over 30 MPG, he averaged 15.1 PPG, 10.9 RPG, and 1.9 BPG. Any way you look at it, his upside this season seems to be along the lines of a Myles Turner (ADP: 80) or Jarrett Allen (ADP: 69.1) type season. His per-minute production, in addition to a major upgrade at point guard should translate to improved numbers. This will likely come at the expense of Jerami Grant. We shall see.

- Adam Safianow - NBA Analyst - Upsyde Sports [Copyright 2021]

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