MAVERICK'S PANIC BUTTON

UPSYDE SPORTS PRESENTS:

IS IT TIME FOR THE MAVERICKS TO HIT THE PANIC BUTTON?

Yes, we knew this time would come. We are now 31 games into the season and there are plenty of reasons to continue and plenty of reason to tank.

WHY WOULD WE TANK? The main reason is because the Mav's first round pick next year is only guaranteed to the Knicks if the pick falls outside of the top-10. For the Mavs to that, they'd need to absolutely torpedo. As of today, the Mavericks would be projected at #12, but only 1.5 games ahead of the 10-spot. Even getting in the 10-spot is no guarantee with the the crazy lottery odds, but it would give a substantial chance.

WHY NOT TO TANK? Luka still wishes to compete. He would much rather get more help than to have a lost season. This year he is putting up fringe-MVP numbers, but would likely need to finish in the top 2-3 of the Western Conference to seriously be considered. Jokic, Embiid, and Tatum are having equally as impressive seasons, and you have Dark Horse candidates like Booker, Mitchell, and Giannis constantly knocking at the door. Many fear that consistently disappointing playoff performances and what is perceived as a sub-par front office will cause Luka to request out or walk at the end of his contract. There seems to be a belief that if he was added to a team of proven winners, he might find more success. You could very possibly tank, not get a generational talent, and not get the King's Ransom you would need to move on from him. It could be a very ugly situation, much like the Harden fiasco in Brooklyn last season.

WHAT IS AVAILABLE IN THIS DRAFT? It might be too early to tell, but Outside of maybe the top 2-3 picks, it's sort of a crapshoot. 10 might give you a Dariq Whitehead, who was a top-3 prospect having a rough year at Duke. You could make the case you could get Cam Reddish for a steep discount and could contribute faster than Whitehead. You could maybe go with a Kel'el Ware, who gives you a lot of the same skillset as what you're seeing with Christian Wood. Rangy big man that has issues at the line. There will be a lot of elite level prospects you might be able to get for low-level assets later in the draft if they continue to show suspect value. Leonard Miller is being mocked in the mid-20s right now due to his inconsistent outside shot and horrible assist:turnover ratio. A team like the Mavs that need rebounding and defense and are a low-turnover team, could find value in his skillset. He very well could drastically out-perform his draft position and make an immediate impact over a guy like Bullock on the bench. Oscar Tshiebwe is another guy that could find a nice role on the Mavericks. He is a probably 2nd round pick, is a super-elite rebounder, solid defender, and while he is a throw-back Capela-type player, he could be useful on a team like the Mavericks that live and die by the 3.

WHAT IS AVAILBLE IN FREE AGENCY? Well, not much... at least not for the Mavs. The Mavericks are in cap hell right now. Wood is extension-eligible, and if he walks, he sort of makes it difficult to acquire another player. The Mavericks used their draft pick last year on draft day to acquire him, so it could have been a costly move if you rented him to pass on Jovic, Nembhard, Koloko, or Jaylin Williams, all of whom have substantial roles early this season. Yes, there's a chance maybe we get Chicago or Indiana to do a sign and trade for Vucevic or Turner, but how much would you pay them compared to what you could just pay Wood. It's unlikely the Mavericks would have the cap space for both. There are solid role players available, but many of bird rights for their existing team, making it much more difficult to sign these players with such tight salary caps throughout the league. The Mavs have a bad track record with free agency, so the tier of players that they could realistic get are guys like Barton, Saric, maybe Poeltl. There are teams with a much further along timeline that if a player is looking for a ring, he could join.

WHAT TRADES ARE AVAILABLE? This is really the question. The deadline is quickly approaching, the Mavericks have what should have been a really interesting game against the Lakers on Christmas, and all the announcers will talk about is which of these teams is going to yank the ripcord first. The Lakers have health issues with their veteran players and the role players on their team is as suspect as on the Mavs. Much like the Mavs, there are key young guys that the franchise will try to give a longer look toward the end of the season - Reaves, Lonnie Walker, and Christie. The Mavs will give Hardy and Green a longer leash in the event that the season essentially shuts down. In reality, the Mavs could use these guys to get better. Starting from the best first, there are a the best class of guys that the Mavs could actually be attached to. John Collins is a name that has been floating around for a while as a trade target, and it makes sense. The Hawks have an abundance of large wings, many of which could play the 4. Turner and Hield have both been in trade talks with several teams, but with the Pacers in solid position in the East, they might wait until the last moment to make a decision. Bradley Beal or Zach LaVine would be the crowned jewel, but probably the least likely to be acquired. These teams might look to shed huge contracts on guys that aren't helping their team win, and are consistent injury risk. Both are the right position to play next to Luka, as an off-guard with ball-handling skills. There are more realistic targets for the Mavs, none of which will excite fans. Eric Gordon comes to mind. A veteran 3-and-D player he is on a very young Rockets team but is averaging 35% from beyond the arc (below his career average) and over 85% from the line (something Mavs are terrible). Doug McDermott would be the same sort of trade. The last realistic player that could be acquired cheaply would be Richaun Holmes. He's played a very minimal role for his team, as Sabonis has a clear grasp at the starting spot, and they have an athletic, small-ball bench. 

IS IT TIME TO PANIC? Well if you read through everything written, it's time to be concerned, but not panic. It's also not time to tank. There are only two legitimate players to try to get in this draft and everyone else is going to be a controversial add. Maybe you wait until March to actively try to tank, but can this team be bad that long? Looking at the league, the Mavs are 5th in point differential. They're 2 games back of the 6th seed. They're only shooting 73% on the line, after going for 77% last season. They've lost 5 games by 3 or less points - which would put the Mavs tied in 1st place. There are things that need to be done better at the end of games. Kidd has to take accountability on some of his late game decisions. But while tweaking doesn't guarantee playoff wins, when the Mavs have looked good this season they've looked really good. Kemba Walker has really helped their bench. They will have to re-integrate Green and Kleber when they return, but in the interim, it has allowed Christian Wood to thrive. There is probably another months of games before the Mavericks need to seriously consider how to proceed, but the play-in window will allow a longer leash for Kidd to work through these struggles.

- Adam Safianow - NBA Analyst - Upsyde Sports [Copyright 2022]