KYRIE ANALYSIS

UPSYDE SPORTS PRESENTS:

COMPREHENSIVE TRADE GRADES FOR KYRIE IRVING TRADE:

It's a pretty simple trade - essentially it's Dinwiddie, Finney-Smith, a 2029 Unprotected 1st Round Pick, and a couple of late 2nd round picks for Kyrie and Markieff Morris.

There is a lot to unpack in this trade and a lot of context that needs to be understood.

The first thing I want to talk about is why the Nets would want to do this trade. For one, Kyrie asked for it. This is not the first time he has asked for it. This will now have been the second franchise he sort of flamed out of without showing any return on investment. Some of it was his own off-court drama, some of it was taking a stance against mandates, but it was not too long ago many thought he was going to just retire. The Nets are looking at what happened with the Mavs with Brunson and don't want to lose a premier player in his prime for absolutely nothing.

Now, what did they get in this trade? Spencer Dinwiddie already had a successful past with this team. This is where he broke out and built a reputation as a reliable role player. They did not want to give him the contract a few years ago, but were able to at least acquire a second round draft pick and a swap out of it. Fans will dust off their old jersey and quickly embrace him. Dorian Finney-Smith has also developed a reputation as a reliable role player himself. He is a career 42% 3-point shooter in playoffs, is a low-turnover guy, and his hustle has been crucial even if it doesn't translate to the box score.

This leads me into the fit. For the Nets, this trade seems to be missing another element. Prior to being finalized, it seems that Nets were trying to work out some trade, possibly for Fred VanVleet, with the Raptors. Who knows how that will materialize. For the Nets, they need to win because a large swath of their picks or swaps belong to the Houston Rockets in the Harden trade. The Nets could end up pivoting and going for some sort of elite defensive-minded team. If they are able to get either VanVleet or OG Anunoby, and continue just feeding their offense through Durant, this could be an interesting team. They already have a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Nic Claxton, and these roster changers and culture shifts could be what ignite Ben Simmons. We have also see Cam Thomas erupting over the past couple of games and he could be the additional scoring element to fill the void left by Kyrie. There are several underutilized value pieces that could be consolidate to get more win-now players like DayRon Sharpe, Seth Curry's expiring contract, and have a big contract in Joe Harris to help salary match with a near-max player. They can consolidate now and try to recruit when the buy-out market opens up.

Additional notes - the Nets are also taking a gamble that Kyrie will create a Scorched Earth situation with Luka Doncic. That 2029 pick is unprotected and occurs right after the end of Luka's contract. Should the Mavs not be able to retain him, that pick will be incredibly valuable. This has been mentioned by other analysts, but it's really more a of a throw in, as the Mavs have been transaction happy over the last decade and will find a way to trade themselves out of being a complete abomination.

For the Nets, they have built a really strong cushion and the bottom half of the East is still pretty bad. This did nothing in my mind to increase their chances of a championship, but with as volatile as Kyrie is, it was better that they cut bait as soon as they could to give themselves opportunity to remain in contention over the next few days. This trade is probably an incomplete, but I will rate it in a vacuum.

GRADE: C+

There is a lot to go over on the Mavs side of this as well. Many don't realize that the Mavs are quietly experiencing a youth movement. Aside from Luka's MVP-caliber dominance, Josh Green has emerged as a high-motor, exciting 3-and-D wing. They also have a spark plug guard in Jaden Hardy that is sort of a hybrid of Bradley Beal and Jordan Poole. AJ Lawson has not gotten a lot of minutes but his per-36 is 19 points, 7 rebounds on 47% field goal and 40% 3-point shooting. McKinley Wright has looked good in the G-League averaging 19.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 7.1 APG on 52/38/81 splits for the Legends. The Mavs have guys they can sell in addition to the Kyrie trade, and guys that deserve more minutes.

That being said, the major benefactor for the Mavs in this deal will be Josh Green. The franchise has seen enough of him to move an important piece to give him more minutes. He will be guaranteed the keys once they find a buyer for THJ, Bullock, or both, but this trade was a major statement for him. Jason Kidd has been very slow to trust guys that were not major pieces on their Western Conference Finals run, but Hardy could be the other player to see a major increase in his role in the second half of the season. Kyrie is such a dynamic guard, it would not surprise me if that was an ancillary reason he was brought on.

Why Kyrie though?

If you look at his resume, it's obvious his off-court issues have turned a perennial All-Star and All-NBA caliber talent into a distressed product. He's on an expiring deal and there is a ton of risk in taking on such a volatile player. For the Mavs, this could very well be a rental and his playoff performance last season left much to be desired in what many considered a stacked Nets team. All of these things have driven down his value, but at the end of the day, he is still a top-5 point guard on this league.

Many are concerned about the fit, but he's already played with LeBron, he played with Harden, he played with Durant - Luka is sort of a combination of all 3. Kyrie has been shown to be a high-usage player that can work with other high-usage players. While Luka is one of the best offensive players in the first quarter, Kyrie is one of the best in the 4th quarter. Many of the Mavs games this season have been determined by just a couple of possessions. With such a condensed standings in the West, each of those games matter.

While this is Luka's team, this will be his redemption to what he was supposed to be in Boston, the veteran voice. Kyrie has been to the NBA Finals, he's had to take those big shots, he can finally play with an elite-level talent without being in the shadow. This should give the Mavs franchise a lot of hope that they could sign him long-term.

This whole situation is a high-risk, high-reward trade for the Mavs. The worst case scenario is really not even that bad. Best case scenario, you now added a guy that can finally create his own shot. You get a guy that can take all of the attention off of Luka. You have a guy that could attract players during the buy-out market. Kyrie could be a reason why Christian Wood would decide to sign an extension. All of these are best case scenarios.

The worst case scenario is that you have a large expiring contract fall off your books. You wine-and-dine a max free agent, maybe you sign Wood this summer, maybe you don't. Your team still has Luka on the books, you still have Green and Hardy to propel the youth movement, you still have whatever you can get for THJ and Bertans this summer, when their contracts are much easier to move, and you still have Nico taking swings and Kidd winning games when people say Luka has no help. There's a really worse scenario where Kyrie gets a max extension and then starts being too Kyrie, but even that really scenario, you'll still find a GM that will take a chance on him to move off of an equally bad contract.

At the end of the day, the upside far outweighs the benefit. Does this guarantee you a title? No. The Mavs still need another move. Does this get you in the right direction if Kyrie returns to his vintage Cavs version? Absolutely. In a league where every season seems to be an arms race, the teams that have the biggest guns tend to win the wars.

GRADE: B+

- Adam Safianow - NBA Analyst - Upsyde Sports [Copyright 2023]

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